A Study on Link Functions for Modelling and Forecasting Old-Age Survival Probabilities of Australia and New Zealand

Forecasting survival probabilities and life expectancies is an important exercise for actuaries, demographers, social planners. In this paper, we examine extensively a number of link functions on model the evolution period curves lives aged 60 over time elderly populations in Australasia. The under examination include newly proposed gevit gevmin, which are compared against traditional ones like probit, complementary log-log, logit. We project parameters so into future, from at old ages can be forecasted. find that some these models probabilities, particularly those based new links, provide superior fitting results forecasting performances when to more conventional approach modelling mortality rates. Furthermore, demonstrate how probability extended incorporate extra explanatory variables such as macroeconomic factors order further improve performance.